Prediction Markets in Brazil 2026: What Is Allowed and Blocked

In October 2026, prediction markets in Brazil can only be offered for economic and financial events: interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, indexes and asset prices. Since May 4, CMN Resolution No. 5,298 of the National Monetary Council (CMN) prohibits contracts on sports, online games, politics, elections and entertainment. The ban applies even to foreign offers aimed at the country.

Polymarket, Kalshi and 25 other sites have been blocked by the Finance Ministry (Fazenda) since April 24. The regulated route that remains is the B3 event contracts, open for now only to professional investors.

The text that was on this page before October 2026 was written before these rules. It described Polymarket as a "gray area" and explained how to access it. That is no longer true, and the guide below was rebuilt from the text of the rules.

What is a prediction market?

A prediction market is a market for contracts that pay a fixed amount if an event happens and zero if it does not. The question is always objective: "will the dollar close above BRL 5.40 today?", "will September's IPCA (Brazil's consumer price index) come in above 0.40%?". The contract price moves between zero and the maximum payout and works as the probability participants assign to the event. On the B3, a contract that is worth BRL 100 at settlement and trades at BRL 62 indicates that the market sees a 62% chance of the event occurring.

Legally, the contract is a derivative: its value depends on an external fact (the "underlying asset"). The Brazilian debate of 2026 centered on which underlying can be accepted. The conclusion was this: when the underlying is an economic variable, the contract is a derivative regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil (CVM). When it is a soccer game or an election, the government treats the contract as a bet.

What does CMN Resolution 5,298 prohibit?

The National Monetary Council approved the resolution on April 23, 2026, and the Central Bank published it the next day. The text is short and has four rules that matter to anyone trading:

1. •Ban by theme (art. 3). The offer and trading, in the country, of derivatives tied to the following is prohibited: a real event with a sports theme; a virtual event of online games (both concepts come from Law No. 14,790/2023 (Lei 14.790/2023), the betting law); and a real or virtual event of a "political, electoral, social, cultural, entertainment or any other theme that, at the discretion of the Securities and Exchange Commission, is not representative of an economic-financial reference."
2. •What is permitted (sole paragraph). The following count as economic-financial references: price indexes, rates, securities and bond indexes, interest rates, exchange rates and credit risk; prices of commodities, financial assets and securities traded on an exchange or over the counter; and other economic variables determined by a verifiable methodology.
3. •Reach over foreign offers (art. 4). The ban applies "to offers in national territory of derivatives traded abroad." A U.S. platform authorized in the U.S. cannot offer Brazilians, in Brazil, a contract on an election or soccer.
4. •Effective date and details (arts. 5 and 6). The resolution has been in force since May 4, 2026. The CVM is responsible for supplementary regulation, including for saying what else falls outside under the criterion of item III.

The blocking of Polymarket, Kalshi and 25 other sites

On that same April 24, the Finance Ministry announced the blocking of 27 prediction-market platforms, among them Polymarket and Kalshi . The minister even spoke of 28, and the ministry corrected the number later. The basis is Technical Note No. 2958/2026 of the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets. For the Secretariat (SPA), these platforms are not investment intermediaries and operate as fixed-odds betting without authorization. The Finance Ministry asked the telecom regulator Anatel to notify providers, and access to the domains was cut.

In September 2026, the SPA told the Attorney General's Office (AGU) that Polymarket was still reaching Brazilians through X, secondary profiles and VPNs. The secretariat also warned that it may punish influencers who promote the platform . That is the real scenario for anyone thinking of getting around the block. The site may even open with some providers, but the offer is illegal in Brazil. The money leaves by crypto or international card, with no Brazilian protection, and the gain remains taxable. OffshoreProz does not advise using a VPN or any other means to access blocked platforms.

What remains permitted: B3 event contracts

The CVM authorized the B3 to list event contracts, and trading began on April 27, 2026 with six products :

Contracts on inflation and growth came later, with the tickers PCA (monthly change in the IPCA) and PIB (GDP) .

How they work:

• •The price runs from BRL 0 to BRL 100, and the payout at settlement is fixed at BRL 100 per contract. The maximum loss for a buyer is the amount paid, known at the time of the trade.
• •Settlement is financial only, with price formation on screen, an order book open to all participants and a counterparty guarantee from the B3, as with any listed derivative.
• •Who can trade: for now, only professional investors. These are people with more than BRL 10 million in financial investments or with a technical certification recognized by the CVM. For other investors, the B3 does not yet have an open product.

Step by step to trade on the B3

1. •Have an account with a broker that gives access to B3 derivatives.
2. •Qualify as a professional investor and sign the statement the broker requires.
3. •Ask the broker to enable you for event contracts, which it grants according to its own profile analysis.
4. •Trade through the home broker or the professional platform, with the contract ticker and the desired expiration.

What about Clear's partnership with Kalshi?

On March 9, 2026, XP announced an agreement with Kalshi. Under the agreement, Clear clients with an international investment account at XP International would have access to prediction contracts in XP's offshore environment. Kalshi is authorized in the U.S. as an event contracts exchange, under CFTC supervision. At launch, XP said the focus would be "financial and economic" events .

The April resolution changed the framing of this route. Under art. 4, a derivative traded abroad and offered in Brazil must respect the same list of permitted themes. A contract on U.S. interest rates or exchange rates may be available. A contract on an election, sports or entertainment cannot be offered to anyone in Brazil, even if it exists on Kalshi for Americans. The menu shown in the app and the current conditions must be confirmed with the broker, because the CVM may still regulate the article.

How are gains taxed?

The tax depends on where the contract is traded, not on the name "prediction market."

Two points often go unnoticed:

• •In an account abroad, exchange-rate variation counts as income. Law 14,754 includes exchange-rate variation in the concept of income (art. 3, § 1, II). Earning US$ 1,000 on a contract and seeing the dollar rise in the same period increases the base in reais.
• •Tax paid abroad is deducted only in two cases: if there is a double taxation agreement or reciprocity with the country of origin (art. 4). Brazil has no agreement of this kind with the U.S., so the deduction depends on reciprocity and must be analyzed case by case.

Money that left Brazil for blocked platforms does not stop being income. The gain exists and is taxable, and the path the money took (exchange, international card, crypto wallet) leaves a trail in foreign exchange records and crypto-asset reports. The platform's irregularity does not eliminate the tax. It only adds a problem to it.

What risks remain for traders?

• •Binary risk. Each contract ends up worth all or nothing. Someone who buys at BRL 70 and is wrong loses BRL 70 per contract. The probability built into the price protects no one from a string of mistakes.
• •Liquidity. In B3 contracts, only professional investors trade, and the order book can be thin. Exiting before expiration can be costly.
• •Open regulation. The CVM will still detail the resolution, and the list of permitted themes may grow or shrink. Before each trade, check the rule in force.
• •Blocked platforms. Using Polymarket, or Kalshi's prohibited contracts, from Brazil means operating outside Brazilian law, without the protection of a local broker and with the risk of losing access to your balance.

Does an offshore structure change anything?

It changes less than is usually sold. An LLC in Wyoming or in another jurisdiction does not make permitted a contract that CMN Resolution 5,298 prohibits for people in Brazil. The person behind the company is still a resident here, and the offer is still aimed at the country. On the tax side, Law 14,754/2023 taxes the profit of controlled companies abroad that live on passive income. The rule is annual, on December 31, at a 15% rate, except in the exceptions provided by law. A company set up only to trade event contracts rarely pays back its maintenance cost.

Where an international structure makes sense is across the whole estate: investments abroad, succession and real operations outside Brazil. These topics are covered in the guides on what level of assets makes offshore worth it and on how to report offshore assets on your income tax return. If the question is how to tax and report a portfolio with derivatives abroad, the path is tax planning with a compliance review of the account.

Conclusion

Prediction markets arrived in Brazil in 2026 and were limited a few weeks later. What remains standing are contracts on economic variables, traded on the B3 by professional investors or offered from abroad within the same theme limit. Contracts on sports, elections and entertainment are prohibited, and the platforms that offered them are blocked. Anyone trading must calculate the tax under the rule of the route used: monthly on the exchange, annual on the account abroad.

If you already have positions abroad and need to organize your return, book a consultation.